Game 822727

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Nationals Park

Jun 3, 1:05 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

MIA

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WSH

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
MIA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	10	1	Challenges remaining: 1
WSH	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

WSH

MIA

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

WSH3MIA3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

WSH33%MIA67%

33%

67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

WSH33%MIA67%

33%

67%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 3 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

100%

3 reviews

ELI 62.3

LHP vs LHB

1 review

ELI 46.0

RHP vs SHB

1 review

ELI 50.0

RHP vs RHB

1 review

ELI 50.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

3 reviews • 33% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top4 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

2-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.52% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 44%EV +0.52%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Miami Marlins

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 61

Overturned +27

Count Shift

2-1 → 3-0

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+61.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.63% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27

RISPTwo OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV -0.63%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +5.9 ptsBB +90.1 pts

Top8 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 60

Overturned +27

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.84% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27

RISPLess Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie GameBases Loaded

OVR 63%EV +1.84%MEDIUM RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot8 • Miami Marlins

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

3-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 3-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.01% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsLate & Close

OVR 98%EV -0.01%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot8 • Miami Marlins

Joe Mack challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: James Wood called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 59

Overturned +27

Count Shift

3-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 3-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.30% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27

Two OutsLate & Close

Bot9 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

0-2

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 4-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.68% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

OVR 3%EV -0.68%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Kyle Stowers vs Andrew Alvarez

Count Transition

2-0

Result

Call Confirmed

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 4 • Tie 1-1 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

90.9 MPH

Location

0.85 x, 3.17 z

Umpire Count

2-0

Baseball Consequence

Review confirmed the call and kept the plate appearance at 2-0.

The review did not create a new state; 2-0 situations typically carry +0.00% of win expectancy from this baseline.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

44% overturn probability and +0.52% expected value at challenge time.