Game 822731

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Nationals Park

May 30, 4:05 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

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WSH

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
SD	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	4	6	1	Challenges remaining: 1
WSH	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	2	—	9	8	0	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

WSH

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

WSH2SD5

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

WSH0%SD80%

80%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

WSH50%SD0%

50%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

7 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs RHB

RHP vs RHB

67%

3 reviews

ELI 51.0

RHP vs LHB

33%

3 reviews

ELI 53.3

LHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 46.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

3 reviews • 67% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

4 reviews • 25% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top2 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 1-0

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -1.35% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -1.35%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Confirmed -15

Count Shift

1-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 3-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +2.62% EV

Scenario Swing Index-15

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV +2.62%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot6 • San Diego Padres

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • 3-1

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.28% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

RISPTwo Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.28%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot7 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 56

Confirmed -20

Count Shift

0-1

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 3-4

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +2.82% EV

Scenario Swing Index-20

RISPLess Than 2 OutsLate & CloseBases Loaded

OVR 67%EV +2.82%HIGH RE confidenceMEDIUM OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Overturned +24

Count Shift

2-1 → 3-0

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 4-7

Count Edge

+61.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.38% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

RISPTwo OutsBases Loaded

OVR 67%EV +0.38%MEDIUM RE confidenceMEDIUM OVR confidenceAVG +5.9 ptsBB +90.1 pts

Top8 • San Diego Padres

Xander Bogaerts challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Xander Bogaerts walks. Manny Machado to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Overturned +24

Count Shift

3-1 → Walk

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 4-7

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.25% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

RISPTwo OutsBases Loaded

Top9 • San Diego Padres

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Confirmed -19

Count Shift

1-2

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • 4-9

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.09% EV

Scenario Swing Index-19

RISPTwo Outs

OVR 67%EV -0.09%MEDIUM RE confidenceMEDIUM OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Ramón Laureano vs Foster Griffin

Count Transition

0-1 → 1-0

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Runner on 1st

Top 2 • 1-0 • 1 out

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Sweeper

Velocity

78.4 MPH

Location

0.07 x, 3.27 z

Umpire Count

0-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 0-1 to 1-0.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by -2.17% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

39% overturn probability and -1.35% expected value at challenge time.