Game 822738

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals

Nationals Park

May 17, 1:35 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

BAL

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WSH

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
BAL	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	7	11	0	Challenges remaining: 2
WSH	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	9	1	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

WSH

BAL

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

WSH3BAL2

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

WSH33%BAL100%

33%

100%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

WSH0%BAL0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

5 reviewed pitches so far • 3 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

75%

4 reviews

ELI 47.8

RHP vs RHB

1 review

ELI 48.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Curveball

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Most Active Lane

Top-R

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top5 • Baltimore Orioles

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

Strikeout → 3-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.15% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Two Outs

Top8 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Overturned +24

Count Shift

3-1 → 2-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-3

Count Edge

-53.7 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.17% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.17%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.4 ptsBB -55.6 pts

Bot8 • Baltimore Orioles

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +22

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-3

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.41% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.41%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top9 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Confirmed -17

Count Shift

1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 7-3

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.48% EV

Scenario Swing Index-17

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 98%EV +0.48%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot9 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 44

Confirmed -15

Count Shift

2-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 7-3

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.14% EV

Scenario Swing Index-15

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.14%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Samuel Basallo vs Miles Mikolas

Count Transition

Strikeout → 3-2

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 5 • 6-2 • 2 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Curveball

Velocity

75.3 MPH

Location

0.92 x, 2.94 z

Umpire Count

Strikeout

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from Strikeout to 3-2.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +1.03% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

39% overturn probability and -0.15% expected value at challenge time.