Game 822977

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field

May 20, 1:10 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

BAL

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	9	0	Challenges remaining: 2
TB	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	—	5	6	0	Challenges remaining: 2

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

BAL

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

TB4BAL2

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

TB100%BAL100%

100%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

TB0%BAL50%

50%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 6 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs RHB

100%

3 reviews

ELI 52.7

RHP vs LHB

100%

2 reviews

ELI 50.0

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 66.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Sinker

3 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Top-L

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top1 • Tampa Bay Rays

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +3.14% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 63%EV +3.14%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot1 • Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Vilade challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Ryan Vilade walks. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.

Medium Pressure • ELI 55

Overturned +25

Count Shift

Strikeout → Walk

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.38% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

RISPTwo OutsTie GameFull Count

Top2 • Tampa Bay Rays

Hunter Feduccia challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Jeremiah Jackson called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Overturned +23

Count Shift

3-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.04% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Top3 • Baltimore Orioles

Taylor Ward challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Taylor Ward walks.

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

3-2 → Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 0-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.30% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 Outs

Bot4 • Tampa Bay Rays

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

1-1 → 2-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.85% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 3%EV -0.85%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot8 • Baltimore Orioles

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 54

Overturned +24

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 3-1

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.20% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

Less Than 2 OutsLate & Close

OVR 63%EV -0.20%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Pete Alonso vs Steven Matz

Count Transition

1-1 → 0-2

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

1st and 2nd

Top 1 • Tie 0-0 • 1 out

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Sinker

Velocity

93.9 MPH

Location

-0.76 x, 2.47 z

Umpire Count

1-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-1 to 0-2.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +5.44% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

63% overturn probability and +3.14% expected value at challenge time.