Game 822982

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field

May 17, 12:15 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

MIA

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
MIA	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	1	Challenges remaining: 1
TB	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	—	6	7	0	Challenges remaining: 2

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

MIA

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

TB1MIA3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

TB100%MIA67%

100%

67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

TB0%MIA0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

4 reviewed pitches so far • 3 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

LHP vs LHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 49.0

RHP vs LHB

100%

1 review

ELI 46.0

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 56.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Curveball

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-L

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot1 • Miami Marlins

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-1

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.35% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.35%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top3 • Tampa Bay Rays

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 56

Overturned +25

Count Shift

Walk → 3-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.06% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

Two Outs

Top8 • Miami Marlins

Liam Hicks challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Liam Hicks called out on strikes.

Low Pressure • ELI 38

Confirmed -13

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-6

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.52% EV

Scenario Swing Index-13

Less Than 2 Outs

Top8 • Miami Marlins

Jakob Marsee challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Jakob Marsee walks.

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +22

Count Shift

3-1 → Walk

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 3-6

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.68% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22

RISPLess Than 2 OutsBases Loaded

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Jonathan Aranda vs Eury Pérez

Count Transition

1-1 → 0-2

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Bot 1 • 0-1 • 1 out

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Curveball

Velocity

80.4 MPH

Location

-0.74 x, 1.79 z

Umpire Count

1-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-1 to 0-2.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +1.02% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

63% overturn probability and +0.35% expected value at challenge time.