Game 823047

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium

Jun 7, 2:15 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

CIN

123456789002000100

STL

12345678900003002—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	10	2	Challenges remaining: 0
STL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	—	5	6	0	Challenges remaining: 2

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

STL

CIN

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

STL0CIN4

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

Mixed ConfidenceSTLN/ACIN50%

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

N/A

50%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

Mixed ConfidenceSTLN/ACIN50%

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

N/A

50%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

4 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

LHP vs RHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 52.5

RHP vs LHB

100%

1 review

ELI 53.0

LHP vs LHB

1 review

ELI 56.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Slurve

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-L

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot4 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 45

Overturned +20

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-0

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -1.55% EV

Scenario Swing Index+20

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV -1.55%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Overturned +24

Count Shift

Walk → 3-2

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 2-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.30% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

Top8 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 60

Confirmed -21

Count Shift

1-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 3-3

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.80% EV

Scenario Swing Index-21

Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game

OVR 3%EV -0.80%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot8 • Cincinnati Reds

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 56

Confirmed -20

Count Shift

2-0

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 3-4

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.70% EV

Scenario Swing Index-20

RISPLess Than 2 OutsLate & CloseBases Loaded

OVR 44%EV -0.70%LOW RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Iván Herrera vs Caleb Ferguson

Count Transition

1-1 → 0-2

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Bot 4 • 2-0 • 2 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Slurve

Velocity

79.5 MPH

Location

-0.74 x, 1.91 z

Umpire Count

1-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-1 to 0-2.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by -2.07% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

63% overturn probability and -1.55% expected value at challenge time.