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Game 823148

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park

Apr 21, 9:40 PM EDT

Oakland Athletics Logo
Seattle Mariners Logo
Final
Status: Complete
Oakland Athletics Logo
ATH

R

5

H

13

E

0

123456789100101101
Challenges remaining: 1
Seattle Mariners Logo
SEA

R

2

H

8

E

0

123456789001010000
Challenges remaining: 0
Matchup123456789RHEABS
Oakland Athletics Logo
ATH		1001011015130
Challenges remaining: 1
Seattle Mariners Logo
SEA		001010000280
Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

SEA
ATH

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

SEA6ATH3
6
3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

SEA67%ATH67%
67%
67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

SEA17%ATH33%
17%
33%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

9 reviewed pitches so far • 6 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

RHP vs LHB

100%

4 reviews

ELI 51.8

RHP vs RHB

33%

3 reviews

ELI 61.3

LHP vs LHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 56.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

5 reviews • 60% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

4 reviews • 50% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot1 • Seattle Mariners

Josh Naylor challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Josh Naylor walks. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Overturned +23

Count Shift

3-2 → Walk

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 1-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.11% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23
RISPTwo Outs

Bot5 • Seattle Mariners

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 56

Confirmed -20

Count Shift

2-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 2-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.79% EV

Scenario Swing Index-20
Less Than 2 OutsTie Game
OVR 39%EV -0.79%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Seattle Mariners

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +23

Count Shift

2-1 → 1-2

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • Tie 2-2

Count Edge

-17.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.72% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23
RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie Game
OVR 44%EV -0.72%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.5 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Oakland Athletics

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +22

Count Shift

0-2 → 1-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 3-2

Count Edge

+17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.94% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22
RISPLess Than 2 Outs
OVR 3%EV -0.94%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Seattle Mariners

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +22

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 3-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.03% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22
RISPLess Than 2 Outs
OVR 98%EV -0.03%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot6 • Oakland Athletics

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 3-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.85% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 44%EV -0.85%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Seattle Mariners

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 59

Overturned +27

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 4-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.02% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27
RISPTwo OutsLate & Close
OVR 98%EV -0.02%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Oakland Athletics

Zack Gelof challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Zack Gelof called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 59

Confirmed -21

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 4-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.20% EV

Scenario Swing Index-21
Two OutsLate & Close

Top9 • Seattle Mariners

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 66

Confirmed -23

Count Shift

3-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 5-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.39% EV

Scenario Swing Index-23
Two Outs
OVR 44%EV +0.39%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
B3-2Four-Seam FastballCFMKBKKKCFMCFM

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Josh Naylor vs Jacob Lopez

Count Transition

3-2 → Walk

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

1st and 2nd

Bot 1 • 1-0 • 2 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

51

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

91.1 MPH

Location

-0.84 x, 2.15 z

Umpire Count

3-2

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 3-2 to Walk.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.00% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

67% overturn probability and -0.11% expected value at challenge time.