Game 823289

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

Petco Park

Jun 8, 9:40 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

CIN

123456789000011000

12345678900100023—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	9	1	Challenges remaining: 1
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	—	6	10	0	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

CIN

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

SD4CIN6

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

SD50%CIN83%

50%

83%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

SD0%CIN83%

83%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

10 reviewed pitches so far • 7 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

RHP vs RHB

71%

7 reviews

ELI 63.1

LHP vs RHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 57.5

RHP vs LHB

100%

1 review

ELI 62.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Slider

3 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

4 reviews • 75% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top3 • San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Nathaniel Lowe called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 55

Overturned +25

Count Shift

3-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.07% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

Two OutsTie Game

Top4 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 58

Confirmed -20

Count Shift

2-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.15% EV

Scenario Swing Index-20

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.15%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-1 → 2-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.27% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV -0.27%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • San Diego Padres

Samad Taylor challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Samad Taylor called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -1.16% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsTie GameFull Count

Bot7 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +29

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-3

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.12% EV

Scenario Swing Index+29

Two OutsLate & Close

OVR 44%EV +0.12%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Cincinnati Reds

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +29

Count Shift

2-1 → 3-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-3

Count Edge

+61.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.29% EV

Scenario Swing Index+29

Two OutsLate & Close

OVR 67%EV -0.29%HIGH RE confidenceMEDIUM OVR confidenceAVG +5.9 ptsBB +90.1 pts

Top8 • Cincinnati Reds

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +29

Count Shift

1-1 → 2-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-3

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.54% EV

Scenario Swing Index+29

Two OutsLate & Close

OVR 39%EV -0.54%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Cincinnati Reds

Matt McLain challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain walks.

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +29

Count Shift

3-2 → Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-3

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.09% EV

Scenario Swing Index+29

Two OutsLate & Close

Bot8 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 60

Overturned +27

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-3

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.32% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27

Less Than 2 OutsLate & Close

OVR 63%EV -0.32%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top9 • Cincinnati Reds

Blake Dunn challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Blake Dunn called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Confirmed -17

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-6

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.25% EV

Scenario Swing Index-17

Less Than 2 OutsFull Count

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Nathaniel Lowe vs Walker Buehler

Count Transition

3-2 → Strikeout

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 3 • Tie 0-0 • 2 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Changeup

Velocity

88.6 MPH

Location

-0.63 x, 3.37 z

Umpire Count

3-2

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 3-2 to Strikeout.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +2.03% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

63% overturn probability and +0.07% expected value at challenge time.