Game 823291

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Petco Park

Jun 7, 4:10 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

NYM

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
NYM	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	7	13	1	Challenges remaining: 0
SD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	7	0	Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

NYM

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

SD4NYM3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

SD75%NYM33%

75%

33%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

SD0%NYM0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

7 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

RHP vs RHB

67%

3 reviews

ELI 49.3

RHP vs LHB

100%

2 reviews

ELI 45.5

LHP vs RHB

1 review

ELI 45.0

LHP vs LHB

1 review

ELI 59.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

3 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

4 reviews • 75% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot3 • New York Mets

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 45

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.64% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.64%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top7 • San Diego Padres

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Overturned +19

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 6-2

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.25% EV

Scenario Swing Index+19

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.25%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top7 • San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: A.J. Ewing called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Overturned +19

Count Shift

2-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 6-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.00% EV

Scenario Swing Index+19

Less Than 2 Outs

Bot8 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 47

Overturned +21

Count Shift

0-2 → 1-1

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • 7-2

Count Edge

+17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.27% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

RISPTwo Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.27%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top9 • San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jared Young walks.

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Confirmed -17

Count Shift

Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 7-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.18% EV

Scenario Swing Index-17

Less Than 2 OutsFull Count

Bot9 • New York Mets

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +22

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 7-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.14% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 44%EV -0.14%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot9 • New York Mets

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 53

Confirmed -19

Count Shift

3-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 7-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.10% EV

Scenario Swing Index-19

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.10%MEDIUM RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Ty France vs Sean Manaea

Count Transition

1-0

Result

Call Confirmed

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Bot 3 • 2-0 • 2 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Sweeper

Velocity

73.6 MPH

Location

0.87 x, 1.67 z

Umpire Count

1-0

Baseball Consequence

Review confirmed the call and kept the plate appearance at 1-0.

The review did not create a new state; 1-0 situations typically carry +0.00% of win expectancy from this baseline.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

63% overturn probability and +0.64% expected value at challenge time.