Game 823319

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Petco Park

Apr 9, 9:40 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

COL

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E	ABS
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	10	2	Challenges remaining: 0
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	7	9	0	Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

COL

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

SD4COL6

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

SD75%COL67%

75%

67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

SD50%COL33%

50%

33%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

10 reviewed pitches so far • 7 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

RHP vs LHB

83%

6 reviews

ELI 53.7

RHP vs SHB

2 reviews

ELI 65.5

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 51.0

LHP vs LHB

100%

1 review

ELI 75.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

6 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

3 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top1 • San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Mickey Moniak called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

3-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.14% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Top2 • Colorado Rockies

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Overturned +23

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.72% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 3%EV -0.72%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot2 • Colorado Rockies

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 55

Overturned +25

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.41% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

RISPTwo OutsTie Game

OVR 44%EV +0.41%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top3 • San Diego Padres

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 1-0

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +7.65% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

Two Outs

OVR 98%EV +7.65%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot4 • Colorado Rockies

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.06% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 63%EV -0.06%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Colorado Rockies

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

2-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.03% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV -0.03%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top7 • Colorado Rockies

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 60

Confirmed -21

Count Shift

1-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -1.07% EV

Scenario Swing Index-21

Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game

OVR 3%EV -1.07%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top11 • San Diego Padres

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 62

Overturned +28

Count Shift

2-0 → 1-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 3-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.26% EV

Scenario Swing Index+28

RISPLess Than 2 OutsLate & Close

OVR 63%EV -0.26%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top11 • San Diego Padres

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 71

Confirmed -25

Count Shift

3-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 3-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.24% EV

Scenario Swing Index-25

Two OutsLate & Close

OVR 63%EV -0.24%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot11 • Colorado Rockies

Called Strike

High Pressure • ELI 75

Overturned +34

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 3-3

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

No review • +0.00% EV

Scenario Swing Index+34

Two OutsLate & CloseTie Game

OVR 0%EV +0.00%HIGH RE confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Mickey Moniak vs Randy Vásquez

Count Transition

3-2 → Strikeout

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Runner on 1st

Top 1 • Tie 0-0 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

96.0 MPH

Location

-0.06 x, 1.66 z

Umpire Count

3-2

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 3-2 to Strikeout.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by -0.65% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

63% overturn probability and -0.14% expected value at challenge time.