Game 823394

Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park

Apr 18, 3:30 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

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PIT

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
TB	0	0	0	0	5	—	—	—	—	5	8	0	Challenges remaining: 0
PIT	2	0	0	2	—	—	—	—	—	4	2	1	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

PIT

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

PIT3TB3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

PIT0%TB33%

33%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

PIT67%TB0%

67%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 1 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

33%

3 reviews

ELI 55.7

RHP vs SHB

1 review

ELI 51.0

RHP vs LHB

1 review

ELI 43.0

LHP vs LHB

1 review

ELI 86.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Sinker

4 reviews • 25% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

2 reviews • 0% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot1 • Pittsburgh Pirates

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 45

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.27% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16

Two Outs

OVR 39%EV +1.27%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot1 • Tampa Bay Rays

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 45

Overturned +20

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-2

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.45% EV

Scenario Swing Index+20

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV +1.45%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top2 • Tampa Bay Rays

Taylor Walls challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Taylor Walls called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 40

Confirmed -14

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 0-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.09% EV

Scenario Swing Index-14

RISPLess Than 2 OutsBases LoadedFull Count

Top4 • Tampa Bay Rays

Jake Fraley challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jake Fraley called out on strikes.

Low Pressure • ELI 36

Confirmed -13

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.30% EV

Scenario Swing Index-13

Less Than 2 Outs

Top9 • Pittsburgh Pirates

Gregory Soto challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jonathan Aranda walks.

High Pressure • ELI 75

Confirmed -26

Count Shift

Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 5-5

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.17% EV

Scenario Swing Index-26

Two OutsLate & CloseTie GameFull Count

Bot10 • Pittsburgh Pirates

Marcell Ozuna challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Marcell Ozuna called out on strikes.

High Pressure • ELI 70

Confirmed -25

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • Tie 5-5

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

No review • +0.00% EV

Scenario Swing Index-25

RISPLess Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie GameBases Loaded

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Marcell Ozuna vs Drew Rasmussen

Count Transition

0-1

Result

Call Confirmed

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Bot 1 • 0-2 • 2 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Sinker

Velocity

94.5 MPH

Location

0.44 x, 1.62 z

Umpire Count

0-1

Baseball Consequence

Review confirmed the call and kept the plate appearance at 0-1.

The review did not create a new state; 0-1 situations typically carry +0.00% of win expectancy from this baseline.

Decision Read

Model leaned challenge

39% overturn probability and +1.27% expected value at challenge time.