Bot2 • Washington Nationals
Ball
Medium Pressure • ELI 46
Count Shift
Walk
Base / Score
Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.15% EV
Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.
Game 823485
Citizens Bank Park
Mar 31, 10:40 PM UTC
Medium Pressure through inning 8
Home leads • Count 2-2 • 0 outs
Challenge Now?
Bot 8 • Bases Loaded • 2-3
2-2 • MEDIUM
Next Ball Path
3-2
53% overturn
Next Strike Path
Strikeout
45% overturn
Current Run State
2.307
Current decision backdrop
Most Meaningful Flip
Called strike overturned to 3-2
Run Swing
+0.483
Model would challenge this spot. Estimated decision value: +0.93%.
Team vs Team Challenge Split
Reviews Used
How aggressively each club has entered the ABS game so far.
Overturn Rate
Who has turned reviews into wins more often tonight.
Average Leverage
Whether those reviews have come in louder spots or quieter ones.
Scenario Timeline
Bot2 • Washington Nationals
Medium Pressure • ELI 46
Count Shift
Walk
Base / Score
Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.15% EV
Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.
Top3 • Washington Nationals
Medium Pressure • ELI 55
Count Shift
Strikeout
Base / Score
Bases Empty • Tie 0-0
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.27% EV
Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.
Bot5 • Philadelphia Phillies
Medium Pressure • ELI 46
Count Shift
0-2 → 1-1
Base / Score
Bases Loaded • 0-2
Count Edge
+1.0 pts
Decision Read
Challenge • +3.08% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Tonight's Review Pattern
3 reviewed pitches so far • 1 overturned
Highest Risk Split
RHP vs LHB
RHP vs LHB
50%
2 reviews
ELI 50.5
RHP vs RHB
0%
1 review
ELI 46.0
Most Targeted Pitch
Sinker
1 reviews • 100% overturned
Most Active Lane
Bot-L
1 reviews • 100% overturned
Mapping Decisions
Challenge Brief
Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.
Focus
Luis García Jr. vs Andrew Painter
Count Transition
Strikeout
Result
Call Confirmed
Recorded Challenge
Game State
Bases Empty
Top 3 • Tie 0-0 • 2 outs
Away offense batting
Estimated Leverage
55
Pitch
Changeup
Velocity
88.9 MPH
Location
0.30 x, 1.65 z
Count Before
Strikeout
Baseball Consequence
Review held the count at Strikeout.
Comparable game states move run expectancy by +0.000 from this review state.
Decision Read
Model favored a challenge
53% overturn probability and +0.27% expected value at challenge time.