Game 823632

Detroit Tigers at New York Mets

Citi Field

May 12, 7:10 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

DET

123456789020000000

NYM

12345678901110322—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
DET	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	2	Challenges remaining: 1
NYM	0	1	1	1	0	3	2	2	—	10	13	0	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

NYM

DET

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

NYM4DET2

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

NYM50%DET50%

50%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

NYM0%DET0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 3 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs LHB

50%

4 reviews

ELI 47.3

RHP vs RHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 46.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

5 reviews • 40% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-L

3 reviews • 33% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top1 • New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Colt Keith called out on strikes. Kevin McGonigle steals (6) 2nd base.

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Overturned +23

Count Shift

Walk → Strikeout

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.13% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie GameFull Count

Bot1 • Detroit Tigers

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

1-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +3.34% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 63%EV +3.34%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot2 • New York Mets

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 36

Confirmed -13

Count Shift

1-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.73% EV

Scenario Swing Index-13

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 3%EV -0.73%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top3 • New York Mets

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Overturned +19

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 2-1

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.47% EV

Scenario Swing Index+19

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.47%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot4 • New York Mets

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

0-2

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • Tie 2-2

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.39% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 67%EV -0.39%HIGH RE confidenceMEDIUM OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Detroit Tigers

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Overturned +19

Count Shift

2-1 → 3-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-8

Count Edge

+61.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.55% EV

Scenario Swing Index+19

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 3%EV -0.55%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +5.9 ptsBB +90.1 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Colt Keith vs Freddy Peralta

Count Transition

Walk → Strikeout

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Runner on 2nd

Top 1 • Tie 0-0 • 1 out

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

96.2 MPH

Location

0.70 x, 1.93 z

Umpire Count

Walk

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from Walk to Strikeout.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.00% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

63% overturn probability and -0.13% expected value at challenge time.