Game 823869

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

loanDepot park

May 9, 4:10 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

WSH

123456789301000003

MIA

12345678900020114—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
WSH	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	11	2	Challenges remaining: 1
MIA	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	4	—	8	12	0	Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

MIA

WSH

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

MIA3WSH3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

MIA67%WSH67%

67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

MIA0%WSH0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs SHB

RHP vs LHB

50%

4 reviews

ELI 40.0

RHP vs SHB

100%

1 review

ELI 33.0

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 46.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Curveball

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top1 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Overturned +19

Count Shift

0-2 → 1-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 1-0

Count Edge

+17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.78% EV

Scenario Swing Index+19

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 3%EV -0.78%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top2 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 39

Confirmed -14

Count Shift

1-1

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 3-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.46% EV

Scenario Swing Index-14

RISPTwo Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.46%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top2 • Miami Marlins

Ball

Low Pressure • ELI 39

Confirmed -14

Count Shift

1-0

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 3-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.42% EV

Scenario Swing Index-14

RISPTwo Outs

OVR 44%EV -0.42%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top4 • Miami Marlins

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 33

Overturned +15

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 4-0

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.00% EV

Scenario Swing Index+15

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV +0.00%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot4 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 40

Overturned +18

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 4-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -2.97% EV

Scenario Swing Index+18

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV -2.97%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • Miami Marlins

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

1-2 → 2-1

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 4-2

Count Edge

+17.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.60% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.60%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.5 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Luis García Jr. vs Janson Junk

Count Transition

0-2 → 1-1

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Runner on 1st

Top 1 • 1-0 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Curveball

Velocity

81.2 MPH

Location

0.49 x, 1.33 z

Umpire Count

0-2

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 0-2 to 1-1.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.00% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

3% overturn probability and -0.78% expected value at challenge time.