Game 824683

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field

May 6, 7:40 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

CIN

123456789101000100040

CHC

12345678910200200002—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E	ABS
CIN	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	6	10	0	Challenges remaining: 1
CHC	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	—	6	10	1	Challenges remaining: 2

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

CHC

CIN

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

CHC3CIN2

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

CHC100%CIN50%

100%

50%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

CHC33%CIN50%

33%

50%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

5 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

RHP vs LHB

67%

3 reviews

ELI 53.3

RHP vs RHB

100%

2 reviews

ELI 53.5

Most Targeted Pitch

Slider

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top1 • Cincinnati Reds

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

3-1

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.77% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 3%EV -0.77%LOW RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top4 • Chicago Cubs

Cubs challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Spencer Steer called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

3-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 1-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.15% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 Outs

Bot6 • Chicago Cubs

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

1-2 → 2-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • 2-4

Count Edge

+17.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.45% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.45%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.5 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top8 • Chicago Cubs

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 54

Overturned +24

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-4

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.04% EV

Scenario Swing Index+24

Less Than 2 OutsLate & Close

OVR 44%EV +1.04%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot9 • Cincinnati Reds

Reds challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Michael Busch called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 56

Overturned +25

Count Shift

2-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-4

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.81% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

Less Than 2 OutsLate & Close

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

JJ Bleday vs Colin Rea

Count Transition

3-1

Result

Call Confirmed

Recorded Challenge

Game State

1st and 3rd

Top 1 • Tie 0-0 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

93.1 MPH

Location

-0.46 x, 1.73 z

Umpire Count

3-1

Baseball Consequence

Review confirmed the call and kept the plate appearance at 3-1.

The review did not create a new state; 3-1 situations typically carry +0.00% of win expectancy from this baseline.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

3% overturn probability and -0.77% expected value at challenge time.