Game 824769

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park

May 3, 1:35 PM EDT

Final

Status: Complete

HOU

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BOS

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E	ABS
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	10	1	Challenges remaining: 1
BOS	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	9	1	Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

BOS

HOU

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

BOS3HOU6

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

BOS33%HOU83%

33%

83%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

BOS33%HOU17%

33%

17%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

9 reviewed pitches so far • 6 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs LHB

LHP vs RHB

75%

4 reviews

ELI 58.3

RHP vs RHB

50%

4 reviews

ELI 58.8

LHP vs LHB

100%

1 review

ELI 52.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Sinker

3 reviews • 33% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

4 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top3 • Houston Astros

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 57

Overturned +26

Count Shift

Strikeout → 2-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.29% EV

Scenario Swing Index+26

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Top4 • Houston Astros

Christian Walker challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Christian Walker walks.

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +21

Count Shift

3-2 → Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.21% EV

Scenario Swing Index+21

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Top4 • Houston Astros

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 55

Overturned +25

Count Shift

2-2 → 3-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

+53.7 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.63% EV

Scenario Swing Index+25

Two OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV +0.63%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.4 ptsBB +55.6 pts

Bot4 • Boston Red Sox

Ceddanne Rafaela challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Ceddanne Rafaela called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 50

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.22% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Top5 • Boston Red Sox

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +23

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Runner on 2nd • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.03% EV

Scenario Swing Index+23

RISPLess Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 98%EV -0.03%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Houston Astros

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +1.80% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18

Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV +1.80%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top6 • Houston Astros

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 61

Overturned +27

Count Shift

1-2 → 2-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+17.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.62% EV

Scenario Swing Index+27

Two OutsTie Game

OVR 39%EV -0.62%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +17.5 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top9 • Boston Red Sox

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 70

Confirmed -25

Count Shift

2-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.33% EV

Scenario Swing Index-25

Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game

OVR 63%EV -0.33%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top10 • Houston Astros

Ball

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +29

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 3-1

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.38% EV

Scenario Swing Index+29

Two OutsLate & Close

OVR 3%EV -0.38%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Carlos Correa vs Ranger Suarez

Count Transition

Strikeout → 2-2

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 3 • Tie 0-0 • 1 out

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

Velocity

91.6 MPH

Location

0.95 x, 1.81 z

Umpire Count

Strikeout

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from Strikeout to 2-2.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.70% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

39% overturn probability and -0.29% expected value at challenge time.