Game 831446
Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium
Mar 22, 5:10 PM UTC
A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.
Debrief generated Mar 25, 3:25 AM
Team vs Team Outcome Recap
Total Reviews
Raw challenge volume from the completed game.
Overturn Rate
Which club actually won more of its review bets.
Late / Close Share
How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.
Tonight's Review Pattern
2 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned
Highest Risk Split
LHP vs LHB
LHP vs LHB
100%
1 review
ELI 51.0
Most Targeted Pitch
Slider
1 reviews • 100% overturned
Most Active Lane
Bot-L
1 reviews • 100% overturned
Scenario Timeline
Top6 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 51
Count Shift
3-1 → 2-2
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 3-1
Count Edge
-27.7 pts
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.49% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Top8 • New York Mets
Medium Pressure • ELI 56
Count Shift
0-1 → 1-0
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 3-2
Count Edge
-0.2 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -0.89% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins ended with New York Mets 3, Miami Marlins 4, and the ABS layer of the game was defined by 2 total challenges with 2 overturns. Miami Marlins got the most value from review, finishing 1-for-1 on its challenges.
In Bottom 8, New York Mets challenged for Nick Roselli on a Ball, and the review overturned the call. In Bottom 6, Miami Marlins challenged for Agustín Ramírez on a , and the review overturned the call.
Pitch Timeline
Mapping Decisions
Challenge Brief
Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.
Focus
Brett Baty vs Andrew Nardi
Count Transition
3-1 → 2-2
Result
Call Overturned
Count Changed
Game State
Bases Empty
Top 6 • 3-1 • 2 outs
Away offense batting
Estimated Leverage
51
Pitch
Slider
Velocity
82.9 MPH
Location
-0.66 x, 2.02 z
Count Before
3-1
Baseball Consequence
Count changed from 3-1 to 2-2.
Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.082 from this review state.
Decision Read
Model favored a challenge
53% overturn probability and +0.49% expected value at challenge time.
Overall, the plate umpire had 2 calls overturned out of 2 reviews, with 0 confirmed. Pitch-location evidence was available on 2 of 2 challenges, which gives the umpire section enough support for a limited zone read. The report is based on challenge events only, not the full pitch-by-pitch plate appearance context. This recap used the deterministic fallback template rather than a model-written narrative, so it stays compact and evidence-based.