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Game 831461

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium

Mar 15, 5:05 PM UTC

Washington Nationals Logo
St. Louis Cardinals Logo
FinalSpring
Status: Complete
Matchup123456789RHEABS
Washington Nationals Logo
WSH
030000000354
Challenges remaining: 2
St. Louis Cardinals Logo
STL
31001001—681
Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Debrief generated Mar 22, 9:53 PM

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

STL
WSH

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

STL3WSH0
3
0

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

Mixed ConfidenceSTL67%WSHN/A

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

67%
N/A

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

Mixed ConfidenceSTL0%WSHN/A

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

0%
N/A

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

3 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 52.0

RHP vs LHB

0%

1 review

ELI 46.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Curveball

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-L

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top2 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 30

Overturned +22

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 0-3

Count Edge

-1.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -0.08% EV

Scenario Swing Index+22
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV -0.08%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG -1.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Bot2 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

2-2

Base / Score

Runner on 3rd • 3-4

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • +0.13% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16
RISPLess Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV +0.13%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Bot5 • St. Louis Cardinals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +37

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Runner on 3rd • 3-4

Count Edge

-0.2 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -2.42% EV

Scenario Swing Index+37
RISPLess Than 2 Outs
OVR 45%EV -2.42%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG -0.2 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Narrative Intelligence

Game Debrief

Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.

The St. Louis Cardinals edged out the Washington Nationals 6-3 in a game where the use of the Automated Ball-Strike system (ABS) played a subtle yet decisive role in maintaining the rhythm and fairness of the at-bats. Over three challenges issued by the Cardinals, two were successful in overturning pitches from balls to strikes or vice versa, both occurring early and mid-game and effectively adjusting the count in crucial moments. Washington, meanwhile, did not issue any challenges, leaving the Cardinals to fully capitalize on ABS interventions.

The pivotal moments came in the bottom of the second and fifth innings, which were also the most active innings of the game. In the bottom of the second, Pedro Pagés saw a called strike overturned to a ball, shifting the count from 1-1 to 0-2. This count change, backed by full pitch-tracking data, likely helped disrupt the batter’s approach and contributed to the Cardinals pulling ahead to a 3-0 lead. Similarly, in the bottom of the fifth, Masyn Winn had a ball call overturned to a strike, adjusting the count from 0-1 to 1-0 and reinforcing the Cardinals’ control over the plate appearance during a 3-4 score. These shifts demonstrate how ABS helped clarify the strike zone, ensuring the accurate calling of pitches before each at-bat’s conclusion.

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
B1-1CurveballCFMK

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Luis García Jr. vs Richard Fitts

Count Transition

1-1 → 0-2

Result

Call Overturned

Count Changed

Game State

Runner on 1st

Top 2 • 0-3 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

30

Pitch

Curveball

Velocity

82.6 MPH

Location

-0.80 x, 2.10 z

Count Before

1-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-1 to 0-2.

Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.116 from this review state.

Decision Read

Model favored holding

53% overturn probability and -0.08% expected value at challenge time.

The pitch umpire’s accuracy, while generally strong with two calls overturned and only one confirmed, reflected a zone that was under close review but largely consistent with the ABS criteria. The absence of late-and-close challenges suggests the flow of the game was steady, without controversy in high-leverage moments. While this analysis is limited to documented challenges and pitch data, the integration of ABS evidently contributed to a well-managed strike zone that aligned with the Cardinals' eventual victory.

Debrief quality