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Game 831465

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches

Mar 11, 5:05 PM UTC

St. Louis Cardinals Logo
Washington Nationals Logo
FinalSpring
Status: Complete
Matchup123456789RHEABS
St. Louis Cardinals Logo
STL
000001000150
Challenges remaining: 1
Washington Nationals Logo
WSH
10000002—380
Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Debrief generated Mar 22, 9:46 PM

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

WSH
STL

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

WSH3STL3
3
3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

WSH67%STL67%
67%
67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

WSH33%STL67%
33%
67%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs RHB

LHP vs RHB

100%

2 reviews

ELI 56.5

RHP vs RHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 58.0

RHP vs LHB

0%

1 review

ELI 46.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

3 reviews • 67% overturned

Most Active Lane

Top-M

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top4 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

2-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -0.09% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 45%EV -0.09%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Bot5 • Washington Nationals

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Overturned +35

Count Shift

1-2 → 2-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-1

Count Edge

+0.9 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -0.33% EV

Scenario Swing Index+35
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 45%EV -0.33%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +1.6 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Bot6 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Overturned +37

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

-1.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -2.16% EV

Scenario Swing Index+37
Less Than 2 OutsTie Game
OVR 53%EV -2.16%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG -1.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top7 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

High Pressure • ELI 65

Overturned +47

Count Shift

Walk → 3-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.68% EV

Scenario Swing Index+47
Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Bot7 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 64

Overturned +46

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

+0.2 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.64% EV

Scenario Swing Index+46
Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game
OVR 53%EV +0.64%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.2 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top8 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 64

Confirmed -22

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 1-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.72% EV

Scenario Swing Index-22
Less Than 2 OutsLate & CloseTie Game

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Narrative Intelligence

Game Debrief

Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.

The Washington Nationals edged the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 in a game where the use of AiBS challenges underscored critical moments in the late innings. Both teams brought equal scrutiny to umpiring in this tightly contested matchup, combining for six total challenges with a strong success rate: four calls were overturned, including key strike calls that shifted critical counts and momentums in the bottom of the seventh and sixth innings. This quiet but impactful use of video review demonstrates the increasing importance of technology in preserving fairness and precision in contest-defining moments.

Washington and St. Louis each initiated three challenges, seeing two overturned each. Notably, three of the four overturned calls occurred in late-and-close situations, emphasizing the game’s competitive balance and how marginal calls carried weight as the score knotted at 1-1. The plate umpire’s decisions were ultimately overturned on four of six challenges, reflecting that even experienced umpires can face difficulty in consistently adjudicating borderline strike decisions. The overturned calls primarily involved adjustments to the strike count, such as transforming what initially were called strikes into balls, thereby altering batters’ strategic approach before the next pitch.

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
B1-1SinkerBCFMCFMBK

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Andrés Chaparro vs Matt Svanson

Count Transition

1-1 → 0-2

Result

Call Overturned

Count Changed

Game State

Runner on 1st

Bot 6 • Tie 1-1 • 0 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

52

Pitch

Sinker

Velocity

95.8 MPH

Location

0.17 x, 2.99 z

Count Before

1-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-1 to 0-2.

Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.143 from this review state.

Decision Read

Model favored holding

53% overturn probability and -2.16% expected value at challenge time.

The most active innings for challenges were the bottom of the seventh, which saw two key calls overturned impacting counts from 1-0 to 0-1 and from 4-1 to 3-2, respectively. Earlier, in the bottom of the sixth inning, another critical strike call against Pedro Pagés was reversed from 1-1 to 0-2, reinforcing how tight pitch framing and umpiring interpretations influenced late-game dynamics. These shifts illustrate how precision in the strike zone not only affects individual at-bats but contributes to the subtle momentum swings essential in a low-scoring contest.

While all challenges included pitch-location data, one of the six relied on inferred coordinates, suggesting a degree of caution before drawing broad conclusions about systemic umpire tendencies. Nonetheless, the Nationals’ ability to leverage the AiBS system effectively likely played a role in helping secure their narrow win. The Cardinals’ persistence in challenging calls also reflects a commitment to maximizing every opportunity, even in a game where runs were at a premium. Such interplay between analytics and decision-making continues to evolve the competitive landscape in baseball’s spring training showcase.

Debrief quality