Skip to main content
ABS Observatory
Live FeedUmpire StatsTeam StatsArticlesAbout

Game 831471

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium

Mar 10, 5:10 PM UTC

Washington Nationals Logo
Miami Marlins Logo
FinalSpring
Status: Complete
Matchup123456789RHEABS
Washington Nationals Logo
WSH
020000131793
Challenges remaining: 0
Miami Marlins Logo
MIA
001101020581
Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Debrief generated Mar 10, 9:43 PM

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

MIA
WSH

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

MIA2WSH4
2
4

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

MIA0%WSH50%
0%
50%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

MIA50%WSH0%
50%
0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs LHB

LHP vs LHB

67%

3 reviews

ELI 49.7

RHP vs LHB

0%

2 reviews

ELI 45.0

RHP vs RHB

0%

1 review

ELI 69.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

3 reviews • 33% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot3 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Overturned +37

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

2nd and 3rd • 2-1

Count Edge

+0.2 pts

Decision Read

Hold • +0.07% EV

Scenario Swing Index+37
RISPTwo Outs
OVR 53%EV +0.07%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.2 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top4 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Confirmed -16

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.36% EV

Scenario Swing Index-16
Less Than 2 Outs

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Bot4 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 46

Overturned +33

Count Shift

2-0 → 1-1

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-1

Count Edge

+0.9 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +1.58% EV

Scenario Swing Index+33
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV +1.58%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +1.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top5 • Washington Nationals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 52

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 2-2

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.45% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18
Less Than 2 OutsTie Game

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Bot7 • Miami Marlins

Called Strike

High Pressure • ELI 69

Confirmed -24

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 3-3

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.63% EV

Scenario Swing Index-24
Two OutsLate & CloseTie Game

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Bot8 • Miami Marlins

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 44

Confirmed -15

Count Shift

2-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-3

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -0.51% EV

Scenario Swing Index-15
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV -0.51%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Narrative Intelligence

Game Debrief

Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.

The Washington Nationals edged the Miami Marlins 7-5 in a game marked by critical umpire challenges that highlighted shifts in pitch call accuracy and the dynamic rhythm of late innings. The Nationals’ ability to win two of their four challenges—both involving pivotal called strikes against Drew Millas in the early-to-middle innings—played a noteworthy role in their offensive momentum, recalibrating the count in key at-bats during a tight scoreline.

Of the six total challenges, only two were overturned, both favoring the Nationals, while the Marlins’ two attempts were unsuccessful. The plate umpire’s calls were upheld more often than overturned (4 to 2), indicating a relatively consistent strike zone but with enough marginal call corrections to influence the narrative. The overturned calls for Millas in the bottom of the third and fourth innings, each modifying the count before the completion of the plate appearance, subtly shifted the offensive pressure and contributed to the Nationals maintaining an early lead.

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
CFM1-3SliderCFMCFMCFMBB

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

José Tena vs Andrew Nardi

Count Transition

Strikeout

Result

Call Confirmed

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 5 • Tie 2-2 • 0 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

52

Pitch

Slider

Velocity

83.4 MPH

Location

-0.50 x, 2.98 z

Count Before

Strikeout

Baseball Consequence

Review held the count at Strikeout.

Comparable game states move run expectancy by +0.000 from this review state.

Decision Read

Model favored a challenge

53% overturn probability and +0.45% expected value at challenge time.

The game’s most active stretches—the third, fourth, fifth, and seventh innings—featured the bulk of the crucial at-bats and challenges, underscoring a contest that ebbed and flowed beneath the surface of the scoreboard. Notably, the only late-and-close challenge, in the bottom of the seventh with the score tied at 3-3, was confirmed against the Marlins' Ryan Ignoffo, preserving the strike call as was originally judged. Though pitch-location data supported precise assessments, with half the challenges relying on inferred coordinates, the overall evidence suggests a generally reliable umpiring zone that only occasionally warranted review.

In all, this contest was defined by the Nationals’ successful interventions through challenge reviews at decisive moments, reflecting how nuanced adjustments in the strike zone interpretation paralleled a narrow margin of victory in Miami.

Debrief quality