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Game 831516

St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches

Mar 9, 5:05 PM UTC

St. Louis Cardinals Logo
Houston Astros Logo
FinalSpring
Status: Complete
Matchup123456789RHEABS
St. Louis Cardinals Logo
STL
020000100350
Challenges remaining: 0
Houston Astros Logo
HOU
00140014—10141
Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Debrief generated Mar 10, 9:42 PM

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

HOU
STL

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

HOU2STL3
2
3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

HOU50%STL33%
50%
33%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

HOU0%STL0%
0%
0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

5 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

RHP vs RHB

100%

2 reviews

ELI 42.0

RHP vs LHB

0%

2 reviews

ELI 41.5

LHP vs LHB

0%

1 review

ELI 51.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot3 • Houston Astros

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Confirmed -18

Count Shift

0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.48% EV

Scenario Swing Index-18
Two Outs
OVR 53%EV +0.48%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Bot4 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 39

Overturned +28

Count Shift

2-0 → 1-1

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • 2-5

Count Edge

+0.9 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +2.71% EV

Scenario Swing Index+28
RISPTwo Outs
OVR 53%EV +2.71%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +1.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Bot4 • St. Louis Cardinals

Ball

Low Pressure • ELI 39

Confirmed -14

Count Shift

3-0

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 2-5

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +3.60% EV

Scenario Swing Index-14
RISPTwo OutsBases Loaded
OVR 45%EV +3.60%MEDIUM RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Top6 • Houston Astros

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 45

Overturned +45

Count Shift

2-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-5

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.54% EV

Scenario Swing Index+45
Two Outs

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Top7 • St. Louis Cardinals

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 44

Confirmed -15

Count Shift

1-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-5

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -1.12% EV

Scenario Swing Index-15
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV -1.12%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Narrative Intelligence

Game Debrief

Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.

The Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-3 in a game where the Automated Ball-Strike system (AiBS) played a perceptible role in ensuring accuracy behind the plate. Out of five total challenges issued, two were overturned and three confirmed, highlighting a mixed but impactful use of technology to support umpire calls. The Astros and Cardinals split their challenges evenly, with Houston successfully overturning one of two and St. Louis having one of three reversed, illustrating competitive and tactical use of AiBS throughout the contest.

The most pivotal moments occurred between the fourth and seventh innings, particularly with calls on borderline strikes that directly influenced counts and plate appearances. In the sixth inning, César Salazar’s called strike was reversed, shifting the count from 2-2 to a more hitter-friendly 1-3 and altering the at-bat’s momentum with the Astros leading 5-2. Similarly, the Cardinals’ Andy Yerzy benefited from overturned calls that adjusted his count in the fourth inning, affirming the nuanced role technology played in keeping the strike zone calibrated as pitchers and hitters contended in tight count situations.

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
B2-0CutterCFMCFMCFMB

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Isaac Paredes vs Hunter Hayes

Count Transition

2-0 → 1-1

Result

Call Overturned

Count Changed

Game State

1st and 3rd

Bot 4 • 2-5 • 2 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

39

Pitch

Cutter

Velocity

87.1 MPH

Location

0.57 x, 1.66 z

Count Before

2-0

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 2-0 to 1-1.

Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.145 from this review state.

Decision Read

Model favored a challenge

53% overturn probability and +2.71% expected value at challenge time.

Despite these changes, the general umpire zone held firm with only two out of five calls overturned, a figure consistent with a generally reliable strike zone, especially considering the pitch tracking data was fully available for all AiBS reviews, albeit with one inferred coordinate requiring cautious interpretation. The absence of late-and-close challenges underscores that the game’s decisive moments were less about dramatic calls and more about measured, incremental adjustments that ensured fairness without disrupting game flow. Ultimately, the AiBS usage in this game supported a clear Houston victory while validating several key pitch calls mid-inning.

Debrief quality