Game 831582
Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium
Mar 5, 6:10 PM UTC
A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.
Debrief generated Mar 8, 2:27 AM
Team vs Team Outcome Recap
Total Reviews
Raw challenge volume from the completed game.
Overturn Rate
Which club actually won more of its review bets.
Late / Close Share
How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.
Tonight's Review Pattern
11 reviewed pitches so far • 8 overturned
Highest Risk Split
LHP vs RHB
RHP vs RHB
75%
4 reviews
ELI 56.5
RHP vs LHB
50%
4 reviews
ELI 48.5
LHP vs RHB
100%
3 reviews
ELI 50.3
Most Targeted Pitch
Slider
4 reviews • 50% overturned
Most Active Lane
Mid-R
5 reviews • 80% overturned
Scenario Timeline
Top1 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 62
Count Shift
Strikeout → 3-2
Base / Score
Bases Empty • Tie 0-0
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Hold • +0.08% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot2 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 57
Count Shift
Strikeout → 2-2
Base / Score
Runner on 1st • Tie 0-0
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.16% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot3 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 42
Count Shift
3-0 → 2-1
Base / Score
Runner on 1st • 0-1
Count Edge
-32.2 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -5.74% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot3 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 46
Count Shift
1-0 → 0-1
Base / Score
Runner on 3rd • 0-1
Count Edge
+0.2 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -1.03% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Top5 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 48
Count Shift
Strikeout → Walk
Base / Score
1st and 2nd • 0-1
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.50% EV
Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.
Top5 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 48
Count Shift
0-1 → 1-0
Base / Score
1st and 2nd • 0-1
Count Edge
-0.2 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -9.97% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot5 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 48
Count Shift
0-2 → 1-1
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 0-1
Count Edge
+1.0 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -1.31% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot5 • Houston Astros
Medium Pressure • ELI 52
Count Shift
1-1
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 0-1
Count Edge
+0.0 pts
Decision Read
Hold • +0.04% EV
Call was confirmed after review.
Bot6 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 55
Count Shift
Strikeout → 1-2
Base / Score
Runner on 2nd • 0-1
Count Edge
No baseline delta
Decision Read
Challenge • +0.49% EV
The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.
Bot7 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 59
Count Shift
2-2
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 0-2
Count Edge
+0.0 pts
Decision Read
Challenge • +1.96% EV
Call was confirmed after review.
Top8 • Miami Marlins
Medium Pressure • ELI 54
Count Shift
1-0
Base / Score
Bases Empty • 0-2
Count Edge
+0.0 pts
Decision Read
Hold • -1.57% EV
Call was confirmed after review.
Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.
Game 831582: Houston Astros at Miami Marlins. Total challenges: 11. Overturned: 9. OPENAI_API_KEY not set, so this is a fallback narrative.
Pitch Timeline
Mapping Decisions
Challenge Brief
Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.
Focus
Xavier Edwards vs Spencer Arrighetti
Count Transition
3-0 → 2-1
Result
Call Overturned
Count Changed
Game State
Runner on 1st
Bot 3 • 0-1 • 0 outs
Home offense batting
Estimated Leverage
42
Pitch
Four-Seam Fastball
Velocity
94.9 MPH
Location
-0.70 x, 1.76 z
Count Before
3-0
Baseball Consequence
Count changed from 3-0 to 2-1.
Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.303 from this review state.
Decision Read
Model favored holding
53% overturn probability and -5.74% expected value at challenge time.