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Game 831616

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

JetBlue Park

Mar 13, 5:05 PM UTC

Tampa Bay Rays Logo
Boston Red Sox Logo
FinalSpring
Status: Complete
Matchup123456789RHEABS
Tampa Bay Rays Logo
TB
002000400690
Challenges remaining: 1
Boston Red Sox Logo
BOS
00103210—7140
Challenges remaining: 0

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Debrief generated Mar 22, 9:49 PM

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

BOS
TB

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

BOS5TB2
5
2

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

BOS60%TB50%
60%
50%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

BOS40%TB0%
40%
0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

7 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 55.0

RHP vs SHB

0%

1 review

ELI 42.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball

4 reviews • 50% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

3 reviews • 33% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top2 • Tampa Bay Rays

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 55

Overturned +40

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • Tie 0-0

Count Edge

-0.2 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +1.07% EV

Scenario Swing Index+40
Two OutsTie Game
OVR 45%EV +1.07%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG -0.2 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top4 • Tampa Bay Rays

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 42

Confirmed -15

Count Shift

0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 2-1

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Hold • -0.04% EV

Scenario Swing Index-15
Less Than 2 Outs
OVR 53%EV -0.04%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Call was confirmed after review.

Top5 • Boston Red Sox

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 48

Confirmed -17

Count Shift

Walk

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-1

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.44% EV

Scenario Swing Index-17
Less Than 2 OutsFull Count

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Top6 • Boston Red Sox

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 51

Overturned +37

Count Shift

2-1 → 1-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-4

Count Edge

-0.9 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +7.27% EV

Scenario Swing Index+37
Two Outs
OVR 53%EV +7.27%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG -1.6 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top6 • Boston Red Sox

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 58

Overturned +42

Count Shift

Strikeout → 2-2

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 2-4

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.49% EV

Scenario Swing Index+42
Two Outs

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Top7 • Boston Red Sox

Called Strike

Medium Pressure • ELI 59

Overturned +42

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 4-6

Count Edge

+0.2 pts

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.27% EV

Scenario Swing Index+42
Two OutsLate & Close
OVR 53%EV +0.27%HIGH RE confidenceLOW OVR confidenceAVG +0.2 ptsBB +0.0 pts

The overturned call changed the count before the plate appearance finished.

Bot7 • Boston Red Sox

Called Strike

High Pressure • ELI 65

Confirmed -23

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 6-7

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Challenge • +0.63% EV

Scenario Swing Index-23
Two OutsLate & Close

Review happened at the at-bat level without a tracked pitch event.

Narrative Intelligence

Game Debrief

Narrative readout of how the review battle unfolded after the charts have established which club actually captured the value.

In a tightly contested matchup at JetBlue Park, the Boston Red Sox edged the Tampa Bay Rays 7-6 in a game defined by critical umpire reviews that shaped the late innings. The Red Sox secured victory aided by a strong showing on challenge efficiency, overturning 3 out of 5 calls in their favor, including pivotal strike calls that shifted key counts during the crucial sixth and seventh frames. In total, the game saw 7 challenges with 4 overturned decisions, underscoring the impact of video review on the final outcome.

Boston’s success in overturning called strikes in the bottom of the sixth and seventh innings altered the rhythm of fundamental at-bats. Notably, Jason Delay's called strike in the seventh inning switched to a ball on review, moving the count from 1-0 to 0-1 with the Rays leading 6-4. Similar reversals for Carlos Narváez and Ben Williamson earlier that sixth inning adjusted counts in ways that prolonged their plate appearances and likely influenced subsequent offensive opportunities. These reviews highlight how critical pitch-location evidence was, despite two challenges relying partially on inferred data, reminding us to view umpire zone trends with caution.

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Zone Mode
B2-1SinkerCFMKBKCFMCFM

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)
Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)
ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)
Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Ben Williamson vs Zack Kelly

Count Transition

2-1 → 1-2

Result

Call Overturned

Count Changed

Game State

Runner on 1st

Top 6 • 2-4 • 2 outs

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

51

Pitch

Sinker

Velocity

96.0 MPH

Location

0.61 x, 1.80 z

Count Before

2-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 2-1 to 1-2.

Comparable game states move run expectancy by -0.084 from this review state.

Decision Read

Model favored a challenge

53% overturn probability and +7.27% expected value at challenge time.

Despite the Rays’ effectiveness in maintaining 1 out of 2 challenges, the overall plate umpire performance saw 4 of 7 decisions overturned, suggesting a game in which the strike zone calls were under consistent scrutiny. The challenges clustered heavily in the game's second half, with the bottom of the sixth and seventh innings each featuring two challenges, reflective of the tight score and high-stress environment. While the sample size is limited and contextual nuances may not be fully captured, the ABS story shows clear evidence that video review was a decisive factor in shaping the late-game narrative and final result at Boston.

Debrief quality