Game 831920

Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers

Surprise Stadium

Mar 10, 4:05 PM EDT

FinalSpring

Status: Complete

CHC

123456789000002010

TEX

12345678931021001—

Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	8	0	Challenges remaining: 1
TEX	3	1	0	2	1	0	0	1	—	8	9	0	Challenges remaining: 2

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

TEX

CHC

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

TEX0CHC3

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

Mixed ConfidenceTEXN/ACHC67%

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

N/A

67%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

Mixed ConfidenceTEXN/ACHC0%

One club has a trusted modeled read here while the other side is still below confidence threshold, so compare the available value carefully.

N/A

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

3 reviewed pitches so far • 2 overturned

Highest Risk Split

RHP vs RHB

LHP vs LHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 38.0

RHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 28.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Slider

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-R

1 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Top3 • Chicago Cubs

Ball

Low Pressure • ELI 28

Overturned +13

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-4

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.46% EV

Scenario Swing Index+13

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.46%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • Chicago Cubs

Ball

Low Pressure • ELI 30

Confirmed -11

Count Shift

3-1

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-6

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.50% EV

Scenario Swing Index-11

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 98%EV +0.50%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot5 • Chicago Cubs

Moisés Ballesteros challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Josh Smith called out on strikes.

Low Pressure • ELI 39

Overturned +18

Count Shift

2-2 → Strikeout

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-7

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean challenge • +0.29% EV

Scenario Swing Index+18

Two Outs

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Matt Shaw vs Jacob deGrom

Count Transition

0-1 → 1-0

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

Bases Empty

Top 3 • 0-4 • 1 out

Away offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Slider

Velocity

91.1 MPH

Location

0.96 x, 1.57 z

Umpire Count

0-1

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 0-1 to 1-0.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.00% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

39% overturn probability and -0.46% expected value at challenge time.