Game 831921

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

Peoria Stadium

Mar 6, 8:10 PM EST

FinalSpring

Status: Complete

CHC

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Matchup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E	ABS
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	Challenges remaining: 1
SD	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	—	3	5	1	Challenges remaining: 1

Postgame Review

ABS Game Story

A chart-first postgame recap of which club handled the challenge game better, where the biggest swings landed, and what the umpire looked like by final out.

Postgame Matchup Lens

Team vs Team Outcome Recap

CHC

Total Reviews

Raw challenge volume from the completed game.

SD1CHC5

Overturn Rate

Which club actually won more of its review bets.

SD0%CHC80%

80%

Late / Close Share

How much of each team’s review activity came in the game’s tightest windows.

SD0%CHC0%

Umpire Tonight

Tonight's Review Pattern

6 reviewed pitches so far • 4 overturned

Highest Risk Split

LHP vs RHB

RHP vs RHB

67%

3 reviews

ELI 43.7

RHP vs LHB

50%

2 reviews

ELI 47.5

LHP vs RHB

100%

1 review

ELI 44.0

Most Targeted Pitch

Sinker

2 reviews • 50% overturned

Most Active Lane

Bot-M

2 reviews • 100% overturned

Challenge Decision Value

Scenario Timeline

Bot3 • Chicago Cubs

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 36

Overturned +16

Count Shift

1-0 → 0-1

Base / Score

1st and 2nd • 0-2

Count Edge

-1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.02% EV

Scenario Swing Index+16

RISPLess Than 2 Outs

OVR 98%EV -0.02%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Bot3 • Chicago Cubs

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 36

Overturned +16

Count Shift

3-1 → 2-2

Base / Score

Bases Loaded • 0-2

Count Edge

-53.7 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -1.50% EV

Scenario Swing Index+16

RISPLess Than 2 OutsBases Loaded

OVR 63%EV -1.50%LOW RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.4 ptsBB -55.6 pts

Bot4 • Chicago Cubs

Called Strike

Low Pressure • ELI 30

Overturned +14

Count Shift

1-1 → 0-2

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-3

Count Edge

-17.1 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.26% EV

Scenario Swing Index+14

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.26%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG -17.7 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top7 • Chicago Cubs

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 44

Overturned +20

Count Shift

0-1 → 1-0

Base / Score

Runner on 1st • 0-3

Count Edge

+1.9 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.29% EV

Scenario Swing Index+20

Less Than 2 Outs

OVR 39%EV -0.29%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +1.8 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Top9 • Chicago Cubs

Christian Olivo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Christian Olivo called out on strikes.

Medium Pressure • ELI 54

Confirmed -19

Count Shift

Strikeout

Base / Score

1st and 3rd • 0-3

Count Edge

No baseline delta

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.35% EV

Scenario Swing Index-19

RISPLess Than 2 OutsFull Count

Top9 • San Diego Padres

Ball

Medium Pressure • ELI 59

Confirmed -21

Count Shift

2-0

Base / Score

Bases Empty • 0-3

Count Edge

+0.0 pts

Decision Read

Lean hold • -0.10% EV

Scenario Swing Index-21

Two Outs

OVR 63%EV -0.10%HIGH RE confidenceHIGH OVR confidenceAVG +0.0 ptsBB +0.0 pts

Forensic Log

Pitch Timeline

Pitch TypeBatterPitcher

Count MapPitch Info

Visual Legend

Mapping Decisions

Strike (Corrected)Ball → Strike (Won)

Ball (Corrected)Strike → Ball (Won)

ConfirmedCall Upheld (Lost)

Other OKMisc Overturned

Forensic Insights

Challenge Brief

Focus this rail on the call, the game-state consequence, and the decision read. Deeper model and historical context stay tucked into org view only.

Focus

Nick Castellanos vs Ben Brown

Count Transition

1-0 → 0-1

Result

Call Overturned

Recorded Challenge

Game State

1st and 2nd

Bot 3 • 0-2 • 0 outs

Home offense batting

Estimated Leverage

Pitch

Sinker

Velocity

97.0 MPH

Location

0.07 x, 1.72 z

Umpire Count

1-0

Baseball Consequence

Count changed from 1-0 to 0-1.

Comparable game states move win expectancy by +0.00% from the corrected review state.

Decision Read

Model leaned hold

98% overturn probability and -0.02% expected value at challenge time.